Although we are not technically in a recession (that we know of), one indicator that is clearly recessionary is jobless claims. This morning, The Labor Department said that new applications for unemployment benefits rose 7,000 to 455,000. This is a high number and anything above 400,000 is generally perceived to indicate economic weakness. Various economists […]

The Federal Reserve decided to leave rates just where they are, 2%. The Fed is getting much needed relief, as are inventors and consumers, from falling commodity prices, particularly oil. The falling commodity prices should lessen the forces of inflation in the months ahead. This is good news for all. Obviously the market is cheering […]

We have been harping on the fact that crude oil, at least in the short term, is ripe for a significant pullback. It was around $135 when we made that call, but proceeded to rise to $147 afterwards. We felt like we got stampeded by the raging oil bull at the time, but bubbles always […]

Although the market is down, many are breathing a little sigh of relief after today’s jobs report showed job losses, but fewer than expected. Payrolls were cut by 51,000. about 20,000 less than expected. More good news came in the upward revisions to May and June as well. However, July was the seventh consecutive month […]

The Labor Department released some gloomy news about the jobs market this morning a day ahead of the all-important July employment report. It said that jobless claims jumped to 448,000, which was well above estimates. The 400,000 level is considered to be important and anything above that is thought indicate a very weak economy. This […]

The good news is that the economy grew in the second quarter. The bad news is that it was less than expected and there was a revision into negative territory for last year’s fourth quarter. We believe that was the headline that got the futures markets spooked the most. If the first-quarter somehow gets revised […]

Investors are buzzing after ADP Employer Services reported that private employers added 9,000 jobs in July versus expectations for a loss of 60,000. According to revisions, 77,000 private sector jobs were lost in June. This is definitely good news, but the market tends to focus much more on the monthly employment report that comes out […]

The Department of Energy said that crude oil inventories had a draw of just 81k versus expectations of a draw of 1300k. However gasoline had a huge draw of 3525k versus the consensus of a build of 350k. It’s hard to say what the markets will do off of these numbers, but that gasoline number […]

In order for the market to really find its footing, housing prices have to stabilize and bottom out. It doesn’t seem like that is happening quite yet as evidenced by data out today. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 cities showed that home prices plunged 15.8% from last year in May. This was the biggest drop […]

This morning, The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell 2.6% last month, which was more than twice the drop that analysts had expected. Currently, sales are over 15% lower than this time last year. To boot, the median price slid 6.1% to $215,100. Inventories stood at a 11.1 month supply, which […]