Stock Market Trends: Bottoms Up?
For the last few days and weeks most of our posts have focused on the bad stuff that surrounds all investors. Today we wanted to take a step back, breathe deeply and have something positive to say.
The most important thing to keep in mind is that we in the bottoming out process. We are much closer to the bottom than we were just a few weeks ago. There will be no flashing light or warning that 9108 (just a random number) is the bottom, but rest assured, we are confident it’s not that far away.
Much like any crisis, this one too will pass. And in all likelihood faster than what all the talking heads and people who play experts on TV, radio and newspapers are guesstimating. Step back from the moment and think about all the headlines on OIL just 2-3 months ago. One we remember vividly is Goldman Sachs call that “Oil will be $200 a barrel by the end of the year.” I wonder if that analyst would like a redo?
Just as suddenly as Oil, Housing, Technology… reversed from their perches, the credit crisis will ease. Hording money is no way for financial institutions to make money, they will start lending again. We guarantee it.
The market psychology has become a version of bi-polar. When things are going poorly, it is terminal. When things are going well, it is eternal. We suggest it’s neither. Just remember, October has seen its fair share of market bottoms. We wouldn’t be at all surprised to look back and point to October 2008 as the beginning of the next uptrend. We just didn’t know it yet.
BTW- we are working on a big project for our weekly ETF screener that we introduce next Thursday.
